Filing Flows › Companies › ONE Group Hospitality › Analysis traps
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 27, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 27, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved; 3 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $88K, from −$27M to −$27M, but capital expenditure fell by $14M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $3M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $88K, from −$27M to −$27M, but capital expenditure fell by $14M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $3M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $44M |
| Operating cash flow | $30M |
| Capex, year before | $72M |
| Capex | $58M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$27M |
| Free cash flow | −$27M |
| Change in FCF | 88,000 |
| Change in capex | −$14M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$17M |
| Of which: capex cut | $14M |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | 158.68 |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 3015000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $5M |
| Revenue | $806M |
| SBC / revenue | +0.7% |
| Buybacks | $1M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.2 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 31.2M shares |
| Diluted shares | 31.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Receivables grew 13% year over year in Q3 2026 against revenue growth of -2%, and the quarter before 26% against -3%; days sales outstanding is 6 against a median of 5 over the eight quarters before. More of each quarter's revenue is still owed by customers.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -1.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +12.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | -3.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +26.4% |
| Days sales outstanding | 6.0 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 4.9 |
| Receivables | $11M |
| Revenue | $177M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would explain it innocently
- Seasonality: a quarter that always ends with big shipments
- An acquisition brought its own receivables
- New business with longer standard terms (government, large enterprise)
- Currency: receivables booked in a strengthening currency
What to look for in the filing
- The receivables ageing and the allowance for credit losses
- Any factoring or receivables sold (and whether with recourse)
- Credit terms by customer group
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$9M comes due within a year, 1.1× covered by cash and investments of $4M plus $7M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $4M |
| Debt | $348M |
| Net debt | $344M |
| Due within a year | $9M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $7M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $10M |
| Coverage of what is due | 1.1 |
| Due in the second year | $12M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-27 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → ONE Group Hospitality: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.