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Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q4 FY26, to Oct 2, 2026, filed Nov 3, 2026; rules v1.1
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Oct 2, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 25.20 a share (price 82.19); 51% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 17.83 to 32.57; across every method the research ran the range is -21 to 358. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($1.7B → $1.1B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $1.8B |
| Operating cash flow | $1.3B |
| Capex, year before | $157M |
| Capex | $195M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.7B |
| Free cash flow | $1.1B |
| Change in FCF | −$562M |
| Change in capex | $38M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$371M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 5.7% of revenue, but buybacks of $830M covered it (3.6×) and the diluted share count fell 4.0%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Stock compensation | $232M |
| Revenue | $4.1B |
| SBC / revenue | +5.7% |
| Buybacks | $830M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 3.6 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 161.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 155.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -4.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY25 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -12% against revenue -3% in Q3 FY26; DSO 33 against a median of 44: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | -3.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | -12.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | -1.0% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -9.7% |
| Days sales outstanding | 33.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 43.8 |
| Receivables | $348M |
| Revenue | $935M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 68% and net income fell 68% in Q3 FY26; the share count rose 0.7%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Quarter before | Q3 FY25 |
| EPS, year before | $0.70 |
| EPS | $0.22 |
| Net income, year before | $105M |
| Net income | $34M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 150.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 151.4M shares |
| EPS growth | -68.0% |
| Net income growth | -67.7% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.7% |
| eps from profit | -$0.47 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $290M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $918M, best $1.5B): the P/E of 42.9× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $12.4B |
| net income ttm | $290M |
| pe ttm | 42.90 |
| net income median fy | $918M |
| pe mid cycle | 13.50 |
| net income peak fy | $1.5B |
| years | FY18 / 918.0; FY19 / 854.0; FY20 / 815.0; FY21 / 1498.0; FY22 / 1275.0; FY23 / 983.0; FY24 / 596.0; FY25 / 477.0 |
| down years in window | 6 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q4 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 25.20 a share (price 82.19); 51% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 17.83 to 32.57; across every method the research ran the range is -21 to 358. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 25.20 |
| price | 82.19 |
| terminal value share | +50.7% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 17.83 / 32.57; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 21.52 / 29.58; WACC / ±1 pt / 23.09 / 27.91; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 24.15 / 26.25 |
| range all methods | -20.51; 357.56 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Skyworks Solutions: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.