Filing Flows › Atlassian (TEAM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Atlassian (TEAM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($202.35 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $87.95 a share (−43% against today's $155.65). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $202.35 | today's $155.65 plus 30% |
| × shares | 256.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $52.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $990M | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| = Enterprise value | $51.8B | 114.8× EBITDA of $451M |
| Fees | $1.0B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $50.4B | 95% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.5B | $488M | $190M | $176M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $8.0B | $521M | $177M | $214M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $8.4B | $549M | $160M | $254M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $8.8B | $572M | $141M | $293M | $1.5B |
| Year 5 | $9.0B | $590M | $118M | $331M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 88.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $52.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $50.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $50.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $155.65; the IRR reaches 20% at $87.95 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $171.22 | 3.8% |
| 20% | $186.78 | 1.9% |
| 30% | $202.35 | 0.2% |
| 40% | $217.91 | −1.4% |
| 50% | $233.48 | −2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $451M | 6.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $156M | |
| Capital spending | $25.9M | |
| Debt | $990M | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $155.65 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atlassian would cost about $202.35 a share, $52.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $174.33 | $44.8B |
| Median | 30% | $202.35 | $52.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $203.90 | $52.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Atlassian's latest quarter
Atlassian, Q1 FY27: revenue $1.8B (+24% year over year), operating margin 10.7%, net earnings $90.7M, operating cash flow $469M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Atlassian being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Atlassian?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($202.35 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $87.95 a share (−43% against today's $155.65).
What would a takeover of Atlassian cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Atlassian would cost about $202.35 a share, $52.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.