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Venture Global (VG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 11, 2026; rules v1.1
Venture Global (VG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 53.78 a share (price 11.52); 121% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 34.31 to 86.45; across every method the research ran the range is -16 to 217. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $4.8B to −$6.8B; working capital and lower capex explain 10% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $2.1B |
| Operating cash flow | $6.6B |
| Capex, year before | $13.7B |
| Capex | $13.4B |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$11.6B |
| Free cash flow | −$6.8B |
| Change in FCF | $4.8B |
| Change in capex | −$352M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $131M |
| Of which: capex cut | $352M |
| Of which: working capital released | $131M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +10.1% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 4286000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $46M |
| Revenue | $13.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.3% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 2,585.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 2,635.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +1.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 25% against revenue 48% in Q2 2026; DSO 16 against a median of 17: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +47.6% |
| Receivables, year over year | +25.4% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +58.9% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +26.6% |
| Days sales outstanding | 16.4 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 16.9 |
| Receivables | $844M |
| Revenue | $4.6B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.1546 / 0.16 / -0.035; 2026-03-31 / 0.19 / 0.19 / 0.0; 2026-06-30 / 0.51 / 0.51 / 0.0 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +0.0% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.15 vs GAAP 0.16) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 0.19 vs GAAP 0.19) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 0.51 vs GAAP 0.51)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$817M comes due within a year, 3.8× covered by cash and investments of $3.1B.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $3.1B |
| Debt | $41.8B |
| Net debt | $38.7B |
| Due within a year | $817M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$7.0B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $3.1B |
| Coverage of what is due | 3.8 |
| Due in the second year | $310M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 264% and net income rose 266% in Q2 2026; the share count rose 0.3%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q2 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.14 |
| EPS | $0.51 |
| Net income, year before | $368M |
| Net income | $1.3B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 2,635.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 2,643.0M shares |
| EPS growth | +264.3% |
| Net income growth | +266.0% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.3% |
| eps from profit | $0.37 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
3 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 53.78 a share (price 11.52); 121% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 34.31 to 86.45; across every method the research ran the range is -16 to 217. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 53.78 |
| price | 11.52 |
| terminal value share | +121.4% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 34.31 / 86.45; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 39.58 / 70.56; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 45.58 / 61.98; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 47.53 / 60.02 |
| range all methods | -16.4; 217.18 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Venture Global: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.