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Valhi (VHI): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Valhi (VHI): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 56.84 a share (price 16.10); 78% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 17.02 to 96.65; across every method the research ran the range is -107 to 508. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($13M → −$82M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $44M |
| Operating cash flow | −$36M |
| Capex, year before | $31M |
| Capex | $47M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $13M |
| Free cash flow | −$82M |
| Change in FCF | −$95M |
| Change in capex | $16M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $112M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$800K comes due within a year, 423.0× covered by cash and investments of $220M plus $119M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $220M |
| Debt | $556M |
| Net debt | $336M |
| Due within a year | $800K |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $119M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $338M |
| Coverage of what is due | 423.0 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-09-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $21M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $90M, best $262M): the P/E of 22.1× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $460M |
| net income ttm | $21M |
| pe ttm | 22.10 |
| net income median fy | $90M |
| pe mid cycle | 5.10 |
| net income peak fy | $262M |
| years | FY2018 / 262.0; FY2019 / 49.0; FY2020 / 55.0; FY2021 / 127.0; FY2022 / 90.0; FY2023 / -12.0; FY2024 / 108.0; FY2025 / -58.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 56.84 a share (price 16.10); 78% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 17.02 to 96.65; across every method the research ran the range is -107 to 508. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 56.84 |
| price | 16.10 |
| terminal value share | +77.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 17.02 / 96.65; WACC / ±1 pt / 41.88 / 81.06; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 42.56 / 73.89; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 51.29 / 62.38 |
| range all methods | -107.36; 508.25 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Valhi: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.