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Hillman Solutions (HLMN) stock forecast and fair value

Hillman Solutions (HLMN) trades at $8.32. 8 analysts' median price target is $11.25 (+35%), from $9.00 to $14.00. Across 28 valuation methods the middle fair value is $7.29 (-12%); the DCF says $4.14.

Price$8.32
Median target$11.25
Fair value, middle$7.29
DCF$4.14
EPS beat rate80%
Hillman Solutions fair value by method (price $8.32)Hillman Solutions fair value by method (price $8.32)low – highpoint estimateRegime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–9…$7.29DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percent…$4.14P/E vs peers$2.72P/E vs peers, weighted$3.03P/E vs peers, matched$2.72P/E vs peers, growth-adjusted$2.59EV/EBITDA vs peers$11.62EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted$12.35EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched$11.62EV/Sales vs peers$13.26

Fair value by method

MethodLowPointHighvs price
Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th$0.65$7.29$19.45-12%
DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile−$0.16$4.14$9.58-50%
P/E vs peers$2.21$2.72$3.96-67%
P/E vs peers, weighted$2.22$3.03$3.88-64%
P/E vs peers, matched$2.21$2.72$3.76-67%
P/E vs peers, growth-adjusted$2.09$2.59$3.21-69%
EV/EBITDA vs peers$9.71$11.62$15.34+40%
EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted$10.79$12.35$21.23+48%
EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched$10.06$11.62$15.58+40%
EV/Sales vs peers$6.22$13.26$20.77+59%

Hillman Solutions' latest quarter

Hillman Solutions, Q3 2026: revenue $457M (+8% year over year), operating margin 8.3%, net earnings $6.3M, operating cash flow $69.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.

Questions

What is the price target for HLMN stock?

The median of 8 analysts' 12-month targets is $11.25, +35% from $8.32; the range is $9.00 to $14.00. The average rating is buy.

What is Hillman Solutions' fair value?

The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $0.90 and $37.47, with a middle value of $7.29 against a price of $8.32. Each method's assumptions are on the page.

Does Hillman Solutions usually beat earnings estimates?

It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 80% of the quarters on record.

Is HLMN stock a buy?

Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.

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Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.