Filing Flows › Hillman Solutions (HLMN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Hillman Solutions (HLMN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.14 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.76 a share (−13% against today's $7.80). Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $10.14 | today's $7.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 196.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $941M | |
| − Cash | $35.1M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.9B | 11.5× EBITDA of $252M |
| Fees | $57.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.6B | 53% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $268M | $106M | $79.9M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $283M | $99.7M | $94.2M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $296M | $92.5M | $108M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $307M | $84.2M | $122M | $979M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $316M | $74.9M | $136M | $843M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $843M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.42× | on $1.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $7.80; the IRR reaches 20% at $6.76 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $8.58 | 12.1% |
| 20% | $9.36 | 9.5% |
| 30% | $10.14 | 7.2% |
| 40% | $10.92 | 5.2% |
| 50% | $11.70 | 3.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $252M | 15.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $149M | |
| Capital spending | $66.1M | |
| Debt | $941M | |
| Cash | $35.1M | |
| Share price | $7.80 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hillman Solutions would cost about $10.92 a share, $2.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $8.95 | $1.8B |
| Median | 40% | $10.92 | $2.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $12.50 | $2.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.08× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Hillman Solutions' latest quarter
Hillman Solutions, Q3 2026: revenue $457M (+8% year over year), operating margin 8.3%, net earnings $6.3M, operating cash flow $69.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Hillman Solutions being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Hillman Solutions?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($10.14 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $6.76 a share (−13% against today's $7.80).
What would a takeover of Hillman Solutions cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Hillman Solutions would cost about $10.92 a share, $2.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.