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Harley-Davidson (HOG) guidance and outlook
Harley-Davidson (HOG) withdrew its guidance on Oct 29, 2026: Operating income $25.0M–$55.0M for FY2026; Capital expenditures $140M–$165M for FY2026. Harley-Davidson's 10-Q filed Nov 4, 2026 makes 46 forward-looking statements.
Guidance and outlook
Latest guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2026 | $136K–$139K | new |
| Operating income | FY2026 | $25.0M–$55.0M | new |
| Capital expenditures | FY2026 | $140M–$165M | new |
From the earnings release filed Oct 29, 2026 (8-K on EDGAR).
Forward-looking statements, 10-Q filed Nov 4, 2026
- The Company expects these cost reduction actions to reduce its costs by at least $150 million compared to its 2025 cost base.
- The Company expects to identify opportunities and act on them so that it will realize these cost savings beginning in 2026 and to fully realize them by the end of 2027.
- In addition to these savings, the Company has set a target to achieve at least an additional $75 million benefit to HDMC profitability during the same time period through improved cost leverage and other activities that would result in a total annual benefit of at least $225 million.
- The Company's strategic plan includes enhancements and additions to its product portfolio, including the introduction of the Sprint and return of the Company's iconic Sportster, which the Company believes provide a path to achieve a mid-single-digit compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) target in worldwide dealer retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the medium term, or approximately the next three to…
- The Company has also set targets to drive HDMC profitability higher in the medium term, including growth in its HDMC parts and accessories, apparel, and licensing businesses, that target a mid-single-digit CAGR for revenue from a 2025 base and continued focus on its cost base that targets HDMC operating expense as a percent of HDMC revenue to be below 20% in the medium term.
- The Company believes its Back to the Bricks medium-term financial targets provide a path to improved HDMC profitability, including HDMC gross margin that ranges from 25% to 30% and continued growth in other HDMC performance measures, including operating income.
- The total gross cost of new or increased tariffs includes import and export tariffs implemented in 2025 and 2026 paid directly by the Company and indirect costs paid to suppliers for tariff-related price increases and excludes tariff recoveries, the benefit of any mitigation actions, changes in demand and operational costs primarily to accelerate shipments ahead of actual or expected new or increased tariffs.
- The Company estimated the gross cost of new or increased import and export tariffs implemented in 2025 and 2026 paid directly by the Company and indirect costs paid to suppliers for tariff-related price increases, which excludes tariff recoveries, the benefit of any mitigation actions, changes in demand and operational costs primarily to accelerate shipments ahead of actual or expected new or increased tariffs.
- Based on the existing tariff environment, the Company does not expect gross tariff costs to increase in 2027 from 2026 nor does the Company expect any tariff recoveries in 2027 (1) .
- The Company plans to continue its efforts to mitigate the impact of tariffs, including engaging with governments to advocate for consideration of motorcycles in trade negotiations; pursuing recovery of previously paid tariffs, where appropriate; moving inventory into markets ahead of tariff effective dates; evaluating sourcing options and pricing for its products; and prudently managing costs.
- As LiveWire Group Inc. withdrew its guidance for 2026, the Company in turn withdrew the guidance it had provided regarding LiveWire.
- Based on the results of the first nine months of 2026, the Company now expects both 2026 wholesale shipments and worldwide dealer retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles of 135,500 to 139,000, which is an increase from the Company's most recent expectation of 133,500 to 138,500 units.
Harley-Davidson's latest quarter
Harley-Davidson, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (-19% year over year), operating margin 3.4%, net earnings $42.8M, operating cash flow $336M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Did Harley-Davidson raise or lower its guidance?
Harley-Davidson (HOG) withdrew its guidance on Oct 29, 2026: Operating income $25.0M–$55.0M for FY2026; Capital expenditures $140M–$165M for FY2026.
What does Harley-Davidson expect?
The Company expects these cost reduction actions to reduce its costs by at least $150 million compared to its 2025 cost base. The Company expects to identify opportunities and act on them so that it will realize these cost savings beginning in 2026 and to fully realize them by the end of 2027. In addition to these savings, the Company has set a target to achieve at least an additional $75 million benefit to HDMC profitability during the same time period through improved cost leverage and other activities that would result in a total annual benefit of at least $225 million.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.