Filing Flows › Harley-Davidson (HOG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Harley-Davidson on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$52.7M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $4.0B). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Harley-Davidson's EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$52.7M on revenue of $4.0B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Harley-Davidson would cost about $45.92 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $37.62 | $4.0B |
| Median | 40% | $45.92 | $4.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $52.55 | $5.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.62× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Harley-Davidson's latest quarter
Harley-Davidson, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (-19% year over year), operating margin 3.4%, net earnings $42.8M, operating cash flow $336M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Harley-Davidson being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Harley-Davidson?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Harley-Davidson on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$52.7M over the last 12 months, on revenue of $4.0B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Harley-Davidson cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Harley-Davidson would cost about $45.92 a share, $4.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.