Filing Flows › Harley-Davidson (HOG) › Stock forecast & fair value
Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock forecast and fair value
Harley-Davidson (HOG) trades at $32.80. 10 analysts' median price target is $31.00 (-5%), from $19.00 to $37.00. Across 15 valuation methods the middle fair value is $35.99 (+10%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/Sales vs peers | $25.82 | $45.56 | $97.50 | +39% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $43.63 | $81.11 | $284.78 | +147% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, growth & margin adjusted | $17.26 | $34.48 | $66.61 | +5% |
| Residual income | $15.62 | $16.21 | $16.84 | -51% |
| Analysts' price targets | $19.00 | $30.15 | $37.00 | -8% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $54.98 | $63.20 | $74.31 | +93% |
| Tangible book (asset value) | $22.78 | $28.47 | $28.47 | -13% |
| Survival-weighted value | $25.79 | $45.33 | $96.75 | +38% |
| Stage-weighted value (decline / turnaround) | $24.60 | $38.66 | $69.69 | +18% |
| Combined forecast (3 months) | $26.86 | $34.11 | $42.26 | +4% |
Harley-Davidson's latest quarter
Harley-Davidson, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (-19% year over year), operating margin 3.4%, net earnings $42.8M, operating cash flow $336M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for HOG stock?
The median of 10 analysts' 12-month targets is $31.00, -5% from $32.80; the range is $19.00 to $37.00. The average rating is hold.
What is Harley-Davidson's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $3.15 and $81.11, with a middle value of $35.99 against a price of $32.80. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Harley-Davidson usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 40% of the quarters on record.
Is HOG stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.