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Intuitive Machines (LUNR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 13, 2026; rules v1.1
Intuitive Machines (LUNR): 2 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved; stock compensation added back = no economic cost. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $12M, from −$68M to −$56M, but working capital released $66M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $23M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered · severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $9M, 4.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $21M (2.4× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 88.0%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
Innocent reading: A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows.
Adjusted profit = economic profit To review · confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity high · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $12M, from −$68M to −$56M, but working capital released $66M more cash than the year before: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital fell by $23M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | −$58M |
| Operating cash flow | −$14M |
| Capex, year before | $10M |
| Capex | $42M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$68M |
| Free cash flow | −$56M |
| Change in FCF | $12M |
| Change in capex | $32M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $66M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | $66M |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +562.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | -22818000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Triggered severity medium · confidence high
Stock compensation was $9M, 4.1% of revenue, in FY2025; buybacks were $21M (2.4× the SBC) and the diluted share count still rose 88.0%. 'Adjusted' figures that add SBC back treat pay in shares as free; the cost is borne by every shareholder as dilution, or by the cash spent to buy the shares back.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $9M |
| Revenue | $210M |
| SBC / revenue | +4.1% |
| Buybacks | $21M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 2.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 61.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 115.4M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +88.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
What would explain it innocently
- A young company paying in equity while it scales; intensity falls as revenue grows
- Buybacks at prices below intrinsic value make up for the dilution over time
- A one-off grant (an acquisition, a founder award) rather than a steady level
What to look for in the filing
- The share count after the latest buybacks (the next 10-Q's cover)
- The price paid for the buybacks against the shares' value
- Unvested awards outstanding
What would show the trap does not apply
- The diluted share count falls over two years with buybacks at least equal to the stock compensation
- Stock compensation falls as a share of revenue in each of the next two years
Look again: next filing.
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 227% against revenue 310% in Q2 2026; DSO 50 against a median of 53: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +309.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +227.2% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +198.7% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +260.5% |
| Days sales outstanding | 49.8 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 53.3 |
| Receivables | $120M |
| Revenue | $206M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit To review confidence low
Adjusted EPS was 10% or more above GAAP in 2 of the last 3 quarters: read the reconciliation before taking the adjusted figure.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / -0.076 / -0.06 / -0.211; 2026-03-31 / -0.0516 / -0.25 / 3.845; 2026-06-30 / -0.1603 / -0.29 / 0.809 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 2 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +80.9% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted -0.08 vs GAAP -0.06) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted -0.05 vs GAAP -0.25) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted -0.16 vs GAAP -0.29)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The reconciliation shows the excluded items ending (a restructuring with its final charge, a settlement paid) and the gap to GAAP closes in the next quarters
- The excluded items are only amortisation of acquired intangibles and the cash paid for the deals is in the investing cash flow
Look again: next filing.
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Intuitive Machines: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.