Filing Flows › Disclosures › Insider signals
Do insider trades predict the stock? The record, by pattern
Insiders’ open-market trades from the last 400 days, 19,782 of them old enough to score against the market over the following 63 sessions. Buys were followed by the stock beating SPY 46% of the time (median excess −1.9%); sales by the stock lagging 61% of the time. Buys of $1M or more were right 39% of the time, buys under $100k 47% — the small ones did better; cluster buys (three or more insiders within 30 days) 47%.
Every pattern
| Pattern | Trades scored | Right | Median excess return, 63 sessions | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All insider buys | 7,571 | 46% | −1.9% | +1.8% |
| Buys of $1M or more | 1,159 | 39% | −6.9% | −2.8% |
| Buys $100k–$1M | 2,622 | 48% | −0.9% | +4.5% |
| Buys under $100k | 3,790 | 47% | −1.5% | +1.3% |
| Cluster buys: three or more insiders within 30 days | 2,679 | 47% | −1.3% | +3.5% |
| A single insider buying | 4,892 | 45% | −2.3% | +0.8% |
| Repeat buyer (bought this stock before) | 3,855 | 45% | −2.5% | +0.8% |
| First buy of this stock on file | 3,716 | 47% | −1.3% | +2.8% |
| All insider sales (right when the stock then lags) | 12,211 | 61% | +5.4% | +3.8% |
| Sales of $1M or more | 2,700 | 63% | +6.8% | +7.8% |
| Sales $100k–$1M | 5,669 | 61% | +5.7% | +3.6% |
| Sales under $100k | 3,842 | 60% | +4.4% | +1.2% |
Insiders’ open-market Form 4 trades over the last 400 days with a scored outcome: the stock’s return less SPY’s over the 63 trading days after the trade. A buy is a hit when the stock beat the market; a sale when it lagged. Dollar sizes are the filer’s. Not investment advice.
Most insider buying in the last year
| Company | Buys | Bought | Stock, 252 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSG Republic Services | 24 | $1.4B | +22.4% |
| RIVN Rivian Automotive | 2 | $1.0B | −10.6% |
| JEF Jefferies Financial Group | 2 | $629M | −8.5% |
| LEN Lennar | 9 | $403M | −24.6% |
| ALKT Alkami Technology | 21 | $255M | −29.7% |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive | 16 | $189M | −31.6% |
| LILA Liberty Latin America | 28 | $154M | +54.5% |
| ROL Rollins | 2 | $99.9M | −34.4% |
| WGS GeneDx Holdings | 11 | $93.1M | −55.0% |
| GME GameStop | 12 | $81.1M | +17.7% |
| AVO Mission Produce | 36 | $78.8M | −3.3% |
| STAA Staar Surgical | 10 | $62.8M | −5.3% |
| SONO Sonos | 16 | $47.9M | +0.7% |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources | 18 | $46.0M | −13.5% |
| COUR Coursera | 5 | $42.8M | −53.2% |
| GOLD Gold.com | 11 | $42.4M | +56.9% |
| PAR PAR Technology | 17 | $37.7M | −38.0% |
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances | 5 | $32.3M | +34.4% |
| NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings | 16 | $30.9M | −1.7% |
| FBIN Fortune Brands Innovations | 5 | $30.5M | −0.3% |
| SIRI Sirius XM Holdings | 3 | $26.9M | +55.9% |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $25.2M | −18.2% |
| AUPH Aurinia Pharmaceuticals | 6 | $25.1M | +18.1% |
| AHCO AdaptHealth | 9 | $24.9M | −23.7% |
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | 3 | $23.4M | +109.4% |
Most insider selling in the last year
| Company | Sales | Sold | Stock, 252 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| FANG Diamondback Energy | 11 | $3.7B | +30.3% |
| LTH Life Time Group Holdings | 29 | $2.1B | +88.0% |
| SMR Nuscale Power | 14 | $1.8B | −84.3% |
| CAR Avis Budget Group | 8 | $1.8B | −14.1% |
| BTSG BrightSpring Health Services | 5 | $1.7B | +106.1% |
| LGN Legence | 3 | $1.7B | −23.6% |
| INGM Ingram Micro Holding | 7 | $1.5B | +16.6% |
| SHC Sotera Health | 8 | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| CRBG Corebridge Financial | 3 | $1.2B | +18.0% |
| AUR Aurora Innovation | 13 | $1.2B | +4.3% |
| CHYM Chime Financial | 38 | $1.1B | +73.1% |
| PRMB Primo Brands | 2 | $995M | +29.3% |
| LFST LifeStance Health Group | 14 | $834M | +120.3% |
| AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | 19 | $774M | +53.6% |
| LB LandBridge | 8 | $717M | −1.1% |
| BANC Banc of California | 8 | $646M | +7.8% |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises | 22 | $641M | +31.6% |
| SYM Symbotic | 18 | $574M | −47.5% |
| CRWV CoreWeave | 16 | $492M | −56.6% |
| VVX V2X | 6 | $488M | +34.6% |
| FLNC Fluence Energy | 4 | $478M | −73.4% |
| SN SharkNinja | 12 | $447M | +142.9% |
| ILMN Illumina | 13 | $441M | +76.1% |
| PBF PBF Energy | 42 | $439M | +87.3% |
| GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services | 9 | $419M | +48.7% |
This week's insider trades → Live, filterable →
Prices are daily closes; filings and trades are as filed with the SEC (Form 4 within two business days of the trade, 8-K within four of the event). Moves after a mark are the stock's close-to-close change and the same for SPY; they describe the record, not what the next one will do. Not investment advice.